NEW MYTH ABOUT THE FUTURE
(resume and precis of the articles )
In May 1999 I published the scenario of world development till the year 2030 in Internet. The forecasting attracted the attention of different people, from the employees of special services till the specialists of stock exchange.
The forecasting made it necessary to somehow answer global questions, among which there are questions of new correlation of forces between the West and the East, the fortune of liberalism and liberal economy, the influence of Internet-revolution and the expected energy-revolution on the distribution of forces and wealth in the world in XXI century. The scientific community most likely considers these matters as the ones of faith than of awareness. I also considered them as the matters of choice, but not search, until I came to the idea of a new creative method, which made equal historical fact and plausible assumption.
This method can be called construction (or better – creation) of a scientific myth, in which, as well as in the “real” ancient myth, the plot plays a secondary part and is not the truth or a claim to be the truth, but first of all the incentive to action (in our case to intellectual action). Scientific-mythological approach presupposes not only strict concentration on the logics of the main scheme of historical process (and progress), not only the necessity of logical co-ordination of facts and assumptions, but also intuitive relaxation (though true of well-trained mind) while writing scenarios which consist of a succession of plausible future state of societies and future historical “facts”.
The logics of the main scheme (conception) presupposes the basic idea of the history of any nation, considered as a community and developing in the structure of harmonious cycles according to the principle “four in one”, from 12- till 48-year-long , then 192, next 768, finally 3072-year–long cycles with the final way-out into the 12288-year-long transition into a new quality according to “S-graphic” curve. As a result, there appeared an original vision of the structure and even the sense of history, organic with the modern evolution theory. The sense of History is found here in the desperate race of peoples to win the next evolution prize – “small” advancement in human consciousness which makes moral precepts genetically inherited. National community is ruled by the mechanism which can be called “dynamic homeostasis”. It can also be called “divine” forecasting as it is the religious ritual that creates this mechanism. It consists of “indicative” strategic forecasting for 12288 years and tactical “directive” plan-forecasting for 768 years. In this race of History the Jews and Italians leave the Greeks five hundred, the Germans - two thousand, the French - two and a half thousand, the Chinese - more than three thousand years behind. It is this kind of conclusion that is brought about by the historiographic analysis within the framework of our hypothesis which really runs counter to generally accepted conceptions. But a new theory is also a new view of customary things!
We have got a real chance to forecast scientifically tracing the “divine” forecasting. Apart from the customary scientific forecasting giving a set of hypothetical ways of development with an indefinite probability of embodying into reality, scientific-hypothetical forecasting is the single general view of the future. It has an image with illegible but quite distinguishable contours. Hence, for instance, the author’s conjecture about the future forthcoming crash of the common European idea and other as if arbitrary conjectures that sound so confident.
Of course, scientific hypothesis is not esoterica, not guess-work and even not astrology. It is a working hypothesis about the future of nations and cultures which took the shape of accomplished history and became “an artistic picture”. It is an invitation to joint search. Scientific hypothesis as a method is not a claim for the truth but a flexible image of the future like an instrument and a way of activating the deep-laid archetypes of consciousness in co-creation with precise conceptual thinking. It is rendering concrete of K.G.Yung’s ideas about archetypes and collective unconsciousness.
During a year, from May 1999 till April 2008, I wrote five articles in which I develop scientific-mythological and scenario forecasting of the future of countries and nations-communities method.
1. “Where are we moving? Where is the whole world moving?”
Geopolitical, economic, political, scientific-technical aspects of common to the whole world development and rivalry between major countries and blocs of countries till 2030 have been considered here, special attention has been paid to the USA, Europe, Russia, China.
2. “Hypothesis on the Structure of History”
Here for the first time we have described the structure of History as the history of 768-year-long (“long”) harmonious cycles. The descriptions of the seasons of “long” and “medium” (192-year-long) cycles have been given. Russia of the last centuries’ history, “pieces” of the history of Germany, the USA, France, Italy, China as well, have been considered in detail. An attempt has been made to give the analysis of the importance of Russian nation-community, to explain the fundamental importance of Trinity doctrine in the hierarchy of national values of Christian peoples.
3. “The Evolution of Christianity (or in Praise of the Catholics?)”
The history of Christianity has been described in its main ancient confessions – orthodox and catholic first and foremost through the prism of Trinity doctrine genesis. Forecasting for Russia’s two coming centuries has been specified. The matter of correlation of Individual and Society has been emphasized. An attempt has been made to give the analysis of the importance of Italian, Greek and specify Russian national community. At the basis of the XXI century scientific-technical revolution forecasting have been laid the conjectures about power (power will be very cheap) and transport revolutions: distance factor in transporting people across any distances will practically disappear, as it was with the distance factor in passing information with the introduction of Internet.
4. “Myth about XXI Century”
Three main “troubles” of XXI century: the crash of common European idea, the crash of global liberal economy and the appearance of competitive corporative economic (social-political as well) models in Europe and China have been substantiated. The history of “long winters” of Turkey and Greece in “instructive” comparison with the future Russian “long winter” has been considered. Further specification of XXI century forecasting for Russia has been given, besides an attempt has been made to give political recommendations.
5. “Wise Serpent of History”
For the first time the word is given to “father-founders”, Jung K.G. and Levi-Bruhl L., whose ideas have been the basis of the new method. For the first time the notions of 3072-year-long (“macro” cycle and 12288-year-long “S-transition” have been introduced. The notions of theological and teleological value systems have been given. The idea not only of the structure, but also one of the sense of History have appeared.
Special attention has been paid to the history of the Jewish people. The translation of some key biblical notions and “dark stains” of Genesis into the scientific myth language has been done. The analysis of Trinity has been embellished by the analysis of the Four. The answer to the question, first raised already in the first article and that has been the leitmotif of all the other articles: “Will China become expansionist?” has been found. The answer is: «It will,and moreover,it has already become.”
* This description is the result of not only generalization but also specification of the main theses of the book,that is why the schemes given here are somewhat different from those given in the book “NEW MYTH ABOUT THE FUTURE”.
** Here not only the unit of measurement, but also the notion “A” itself are conventional, just assuming that there is a certain quantity basis in a quality great advan
3.3. Commentary to the graph of “S-transition”
The basis of the scheme is the representation that any nation in the history of the last millennia is a developing single community and at the same time a gradually destroying commonwealth of smaller communities (quazi-community). The process of nation formation out of quazi-community began “only” 9-10 millennia B.C. It takes 12288 years (“S-transition”) in the history of every nation. “S-transition”, according to the principle of matryoshka (nesting dolls), incorporates four harmonious “macro cycles”, which, in their turn, incorporate 4 “long cycles”, and so on till “medium”, then “short” and at last 12 summer “micro cycles”. So the time of “S-transition” is six times quadrupled three-year-long period (3 years ´ 4 ´ 4 ´ 4 ´ 4 ´4 ´ 4).
Graph: ordinate axis is the capability of national community to influence the behaviour of people and groups of people, which is designated as “cultural productivity of community”. Abscissa axis is time. The graph is simplified as the influence of macro cycles and all the other cycles is excluded from it.
I quarter (“night”) – during this time national community consolidates itself, new theological system poorly influences the development of civilization. II quarter (“morning”) –national community becomes as strong as quazi-community. Here civilization develops, valuable mythology is formed. III quarter – national community defeats quazi-community. Nation gains inner unity, monotheism acquires complete forms. IV quarter (“evening”) –nation transfers its achievements into man’s genetic fund. National symbols are perfected and turned into archetypes.
In Christian theology national community is described in the notion of Single God (monotheism), and quazi-community is called the devil paganism. Proceeding from this in the I quarter of "S-transition" the birth of the most national community, based on the living (it is important!) language unity, takes place, but the power of quazi-community dominates man through the tribal community as the subject of quazi-community. Christian symbol of the end of I quarter is banishment of man out of paradise. In II quarter there arises civilization that cannot develop without specialization between people and large groups of people. And what unites people, divided by specialization, is national community formed up at the beginning of II quarter, which has language and belief in God as its basis. Christian symbol of the end of II quarter is the Flood, Noah’s ark and God’s forgiveness of the Earth earlier cursed by him. The history of III quarter is the history of national community’s gaining a firm hold in all the spheres of nation’s life. Christian symbol of the beginning of III quarter is the failure in the construction of the tower of Babel as a symbol of quazi-community’s pyramid (the pyramid of tribal community). For the time being it is difficult to claim something concrete about certain results of the development in IV quarter, as the most advanced peoples have recently entered or are only entering it. Apparently, moral values will become biologically inherited during this period.
In a real historiographic analysis it is also important to take into consideration the fact that while new nation is being formed up on the basis of the fundamental cultural code of maternal nation, there takes place a reversion at the very beginning of macro season, new nation starts its own history from the start of the macro season, in which maternal nation was during its birth. So, presumably, Dacians are Dorians and Germans (Deutsche) are Dacians, Anglo-Saxons are Germans who returned into “macro spring”. Hence the two “long cycles” lag of Germans behind Greek-Aryans. In certain cases the lag may be a fractional quantity ( in relation to the size of “long cycle”), as it happened with the Americans who lag behind the English approximately 1.25 “long cycle”.
What is important about this scheme?
On the basis of this scheme the author proposes a new (“serpent-like”) theory of progress and a certain new mechanism in evolution, which can be called “dynamic homeostasis”, i.e. community’s striving for the balance with its certain future state, roughly forecasted by it for millennia and precisely for centuries. This scheme helps to describe major deep processes in the history of nations and make general conjectures about the future of certain countries, civilizations and nations. For instance, within the frames of this scheme China is a nation that enters the period of a decisive fight between its national community and quazi-community and turns into an expansionist power (II quarter of “day macro cycle” of Chinese history has come, you see).
3.4. Commentary to the graph of “long cycle”
Unlike the graph of “S-transition”, which describes only transitional processes of the growth of national community power and perfection of its theological structure, i.e. the process of developing nation’s communal consciousness, “long cycles” are immanent in the nature of national community itself, they are the cycles of all her life, which includes the periods of stability, degradation and has the task of adaptation, but not development as its greater priority. In the process of this variation national community adapts to the outer environment of both other national communities and non-community subsystems of nation, for instance, state hierarchy, social structure of society. In the process of this adaptation teleological (i.e. outside purposeful, not inside as it is in the process of theological development) nation’s value system.
“Long cycle” is included into “macro cycle”, which, in its turn, is included into “S-transition”. “Long cycle” itself, according to the principle of matryoshka (nesting dolls), incorporates four harmonious “medium cycles” and so on till “short cycles” and then “micro cycles”. The time of “long cycle” is four times quadrupled three-year-long period (3 years ´ 4 ´ 4 ´ 4 ´ 4).
Graph: ordinate axis is external power or the capability of national community not only to influence the behaviour of people and groups of people, but also to solve external problems, which is designated as “the power of national community”. Abscissa axis is time. The graph is simplified as the influence of medium”, “short” and “micro cycles” is excluded from it.
I quarter (“spring”) – the nation’s communal power is weakened, but growth begins on the basis of a new national idea, to be more exact, a new teleological (hierarchic and purposeful) value system. Nation is weak not only because of the weakness of its communal power but also as a result of material and spiritual ruin of the previous period (“winter”), but then nation has already got energetic and spiritually rich elite that captivates more and more general sections of population, so in the second half of “spring” spiritual depth of the elite is substituted by the fanaticism of the masses.
II quarter (“summer”) – communal power yet at the beginning of the period becomes stronger than the world spiritual field (background) and keeps growing. At the same time nation “grows wiser”, working out effective laws and traditions, conducting, as a rule, successful reforms in different spheres of life. “Summer” is the best time for expansion. At the end of the period there is stagnation in ideology, customs, traditions, their forms start to dominate more and more over the content.
III quarter (“autumn”) –communal power, first slowly, then quicker, begins to decrease, but the inertia of material well-being, economic, political and spiritual power growth still continues, though slowing down, of course in case nation does not dissipate its energies in wars with strong neighbours and does not initiate excessive projects (for instance, the construction of “holy empires”). At the beginning of the period there is powerful burst in the development of art. Creative force of art will first give substantial additional, and later on compensatory (insufficient) vitality to already stagnated national spirit. In the second half of the period in the mass consciousness predominates rigid paranoid fanaticism and prejudice.
IV quarter (“winter”) – already at the beginning of the period communal power becomes weaker than world spiritual field and goes on becoming degraded. Accumulated richness, both spiritual and material with all “autumn” extensions, becomes more and more fragile basis for vital activity of national organism. Usually “winter” starts with reasonable but at the same time short-lived reforms, then everything somehow starts to ruin at one go; social life reminds more and more “browne” movement of people, tribes, families, casual and unstable communities in an alienated social organism of nation. The period comes to an end with a new burst of communal spiritual power, which starts a new cycle – new “spring”.
What is important about this scheme?
This scheme helps to explain and put in order a great amount of facts and phenomena in the life of different nations and countries. It helps to make rather exact conjectures about the future of nations and countries, it is the basis for the creation of a scientific-historical myth.